Year-End 2024 Mid-Valley Market Report
View from Margy's Hut near Lenado last winter
Hello!
Below is our bi-annual Mid-Valley Market Report that provides sales statistics in Basalt, Missouri Heights, and Carbondale since 2004. Super exciting that we now have two decades of data to assess and look back at! Ultimately, we are in what I consider an equal Buyer and Seller market:
Seller upside: Values in all 3 areas continue to climb moderately due to low inventory.
Buyer upside: Lower buyer demand (due to high prices and high interest rates) means that buyers have more opportunities to negotiate on price and can take their time doing their research on the property before making an offer.
The result: Properties priced above the most recent comparable sales are generally on the market for longer, 4 - 6 months on average; properties priced more competitively (at or below the comps) tend to have more interest and multiple offers.
You'll see more commentary below. I also included the Q4 ASSIR Market report or those looking at more of a year-over-year comparison throughout the Valley.
Per usual, I also include the latest interest rates and a suggested wintertime activity: 10th Mountain Division Huts.
As always, please reach out if there is anything I can assist with.
Best,
Here is our recap on the Mid-Valley market as of year-end 2024:
- The most significant statistic here is that the number of sales in all areas is either down by as much as 40% or has remained about the same compared to 2023. That also means that overall sales volume is down significantly.
- Statistically, the average sale price and average price per square foot is still rising moderately or maintaining in all areas due to persistent low inventory.
- The average days on market is now above 120+ days (4 – 5 months) in all areas demonstrating that conditions have slowed down from the fast-paced market of the pandemic and post-pandemic.
- Absorption rates (i.e. average time to sell the current level of inventory) in all areas is 4 months or more.
- There’s more negotiation room on price, with a larger gap between list price and sales price compared to years passed.
- Overpriced listings sit on the market for a while. These end up taking a few price reductions before selling.
- The number of vacant land sales are down significantly. This segment of the market has slowed down quite a bit, most likely due to the higher cost of land and the cost to build.
Anecdotally, much of last year (especially the summer months) felt slow. We in the broker community attribute that to historically slower election years, plus the uncertainties of with the war in Ukraine and other present world issues. While sales comps exist verifying list prices, there isn’t the demand. Fewer buyers are looking right now, due to inaccessible high prices and high mortgage rates. Those in the market are mostly cash buyers or buyers looking to upgrade or downgrade by selling another property (i.e., have a home sale contingency). Many homeowners with low interest mortgages are reluctant to sell because their new loan on their replacement property will have a much higher rate. All of these factors contribute to lower available inventory and lower demand. Ultimately, Buyers are having success negotiating, especially if the listing has been on the market a while. By the same token, sellers’ expectations about the time it takes to sell have to be adjusted, as well as expectations on price.
The under $1 million Mid-Valley market is still super-hot. Brand new or move-in ready luxury homes above $2.5 million seem to be in higher demand among cash buyers Mid-Valley. Yet, the majority of homes currently for sale are in between those two price ranges – a price range that is unfortunately not accessible to most working people in the Valley, especially those with financing. This is where the heart of change might be, as these folks desperately want to stay and live in the Valley and are an actively trying to pull values down with lower, more reasonable offers.
Below are is our Cash vs Loan Sales analysis showing Buyer demographics since 2018. To review the full report, click the link below!
My brokerage firm, Aspen Snowmass Sotheby's International Realty, produces this quarterly report that compares the statistics of the previous quarter with the same quarter in the year prior. This report looks at Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023 in Aspen, Snowmass Village, Woody Creek, Old Snowmass, Basalt, Carbondale, Glenwood Springs, New Castle, Silt and Rifle. If you're looking for a broader overview of values in our area, please have a look!
Have you every been to one of the 10th Mountain Division Huts in the wintertime?
Next week, I am headed to the Betty Bear hut with 14 other friends for 3 nights. We'll park near the end of Frying Pan Road, hike up 6 miles with a challenging 2,100 elevation gain. We'll skin on skis or split boards with all of our gear, food and provisions in backpacking backpacks. At the hut, we'll prepare wood burning fires to heat the hut, melt snow for drinking water and cook on a propane stove (the propane and wood is provided). The first day we'll hike in and then spend two full days recovering or backcountry skiing. We'll ski or snowboard back down on the fourth day. Last winter, I did a similar trip with a smaller group up to Margy's Hut, which starts near Woody Creek at Lenado. (The photo at the top of this newsletter was take from the front porch at Margy's).
If you're curious about how these work, please let me know! I'm happy to share! These trips are definitely for the more adventurous intermediate to advanced mountaineer - the arduous trekikng involved and the danger risks certainly push my comfort level. They're not for everybody, but boy are they fun and memorable!
If you're interested in reserving beds in a hut this winter (or next, availability this winter is now limited), click the link below.